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Archive for June, 2009

India-the way forward

Monday, June 29th, 2009

Traveling through the interiors of Orissa about 6 months back, I was witness to the abject poverty ,some parts of India still struggles with. Sitting in large metro cities and prosperous towns of the country, we don’t fully realize the situation prevailing in the hinterland. Yes India is growing rapidly; yes India will probably grow more rapidly than every other economy in the world (including China) during the current year but the gap between different sections of the society needs to be narrowed down and this needs to be done very fast.

 

 

 

 

Economic prosperity in one part of the country or for one section of the society increases the societal imbalances and leads to discontent. The Western European economies have effectively handled this and the deviation from the mean income is marginal in these countries.

INFRASTRUCTURE BOND

Wednesday, June 24th, 2009

 

 

Single largest problem facing India on its path towards economic glory is the lack of adequate infrastructure. Every aspect of Infrastructure in our country is decades behind the developed world and even our South-East-Asian neighbours. The pace of infrastructure development in the Gulf region and even the African countries is probably better than that in India. Every area of our economic endeavour – Agriculture, Industry, Services, etc. is suffering seriously due to the absence of adequate infrastructural support. There is a crying need for the government to take urgent steps in this direction. Massive infrastructure spending at this stage, will set in motion a huge virtuous economic chain reaction which should definitely benefit the overall economy significantly.

 

Indian saves 35 per cent of it’s GDP, amongst the highest in the world. A significant part of this saving however sits in Savings and Fixed deposit accounts with the Banks. Post the global financial crisis, the financial institutions have become extremely cautious in lending and the savings of the country lying in the banks are not being fully channelised to meet the requirements of the Industry and the country.Thus there is a huge wastage of resources through these idle funds which are not being put to use.

 

 

 

 

On the other hand, there is already a huge fiscal deficit of around 11 per cent and the government needs desperately funds for financing infrastructure and other developmental requirements. Any incremental government borrowings from the market would push up the interest rates and affect the economy adversely by creating fertile ground for increase in inflation.

 

 

 

Under the circumstances, it would be ideal if the government creates a separate investment category for individuals in the forthcoming budget which will enable individuals to invest may be upto Rs. 5 lacs in tax free infrastructure bonds to be issued by PSUs operating in the infrastructure areas. Such investment should get tax relief and the income on such investment should be tax free. This will surely channelise huge retail savings and enable government to create badly needed infrastructure without incremental borrowings from the market. There will be positive impact on the economy through increased government spending without jeopardizing the money market and affecting the interest rate or inflation.

 

 

 

 

Nigeria-India of the ‘ 80s

Monday, June 8th, 2009

Few months back I was driving through the suburbs of Lagos, the commercial
capital of Nigeria and was remembering Mumbai of early 80s.  The chaos, the
confusion, the congestion was so similar.  When I reached Lagos Stock
Exchange at the commercial hub of the City it again reminded me of area
around BSE or the Calcutta Stock Exchange during the 80s.  Once inside the
building, the similarities were again remarkable.  The exchange is
dominated by the brokers, it is not demutalised  and dematerialiastion of
securities hasen’t fully happened.  The officials at  the exchange, their
mind set, work culture, all resembles where we were 15-20 years back.
Electronic trading has just been introduced .  Trading  is dominated by the
shares in the financial services sector &  market favourites are the
Insurance and Banking companies. Manufacturing sector has negligible
presence amongst the listed traded securities.

My visit to Abuja, the capital of Nigeria, convinced me of the country’s
similarities with India. Abuja is just like New Delhi..a planned modern
city with well laid out roads, parks & buildings. The government functions
from Abuja & the city is crime free.

From the point of view of opportunities, Nigeria definitely ranks very
high.  The country is a functioning democracy and has been so for more than
a decade.As an Indian, the similarities are quite obvious as Nigeria was a
British colony  till the early 1960s &  english is the language of
communication. The law, regulation, infrastructure (or whatever is left of
it) is the legacy of the British and very similar to what India had.

Nigeria is the most populated country in Africa with seventh  largest
proven oil reserves in the world.  It has also rich deposit of many other
minerals.  The potential for agricultural, trading, industry and financial
services is huge.  The environment is business friendly and though there is
some security concerns, the same are not as grave as it seems by watching
the international news channels.